The chances of there being peace in the foreseeable future are deteriorating exactly one year into the conflict in Sudan.
According to experts who spoke with Semafor Africa, fighting between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese armed forces (SAF) is getting worse and is expected to get worse in its second year because neither side has acquired a sizable advantage thus far.
Clashes between forces led by rival generals erupted on April 15 last year in a power struggle that followed Sudan’s failure to transition to a democratic civilian-led government after the 2019 uprising that ousted the long-serving dictatorial leader Omar al-Bashir.
Efforts by the international community to broker peace have fallen flat. Peace talks led by the United States and Saudi Arabia, which began in Jeddah last year and were initially slated to resume on April 18, have been postponed with no new confirmed date for the talks.
The sides also continue to seek legitimacy beyond the battlefield, albeit with different approaches. The RSF has aggressively lobbied international support with its leader Mohamad Hamdan Dagalo, better known as “Hemedti”, making high profile trips to South Africa, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Kenya and Uganda among others.
Ladd Serwat, an analyst at conflict monitoring group ACLED, told Semafor Africa that
no side had gained a clear upper hand in garnering international support. He said Western countries have “followed international norms to favor the ruling regime,” whereas others, such as Libya and the Central African Republic (CAR), have served as “strategic supply routes for the Wagner Group/Africa Corps mercenaries to supply the RSF.”
